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Sabin: Sabin open vs the better plan
These are best effort boundaries. NOT REAL PLANS, yet.
In light of Scenario D, we looked for the best outcomes for Sabin and the area around it.
Scenario D, a board member’s draft (current version checked October 27, 2026), keeps Sabin open and merges Irvington into Beverly Cleary. That leaves Sabin at about 236 K-5 kids and Vernon, now a K-5, at about 288: two schools next door to each other, both well under PPS’s 360 target. PPS A and B close Sabin into King, and they also leave Vernon at about 288.
So the question isn’t only whether Sabin stays open. It’s how Sabin and its neighbors end up at a size that lasts, with short walks.
Our model, 2031-32: Plan D (current draft) schools.csv; how we modeled Plan D.
The two plans
Sabin open: some of Irvington into Sabin
Close Irvington and split its families between Sabin and Beverly Cleary along NE 15th Ave and NE Knott St. Sabin stays whole, in the building with an elevator.
Ready for 2027, no construction
The better plan: move Tubman into Vernon
Tubman’s middle school moves off the freeway into the Vernon building, in the middle of its kids. Vernon’s elementary kids fill Sabin and King, and Irvington stays whole at Beverly Cleary.
A creative move-in: portables, a flex year, phasing
See it on the map
Side by side
| Scenario D | Sabin open | The better plan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabin K-5, 2031-32 | about 236 | about 358 | about 495 |
| Beverly Cleary K-5 | about 451with all of Irvington | about 354 | about 476with all of Irvington |
| Vernon K-5 | about 288 | about 289 | closes; becomes Tubman’s middle school |
| Irvington families who move | all, to Beverly Cleary | all, split between Sabin and Beverly Cleary | all, to Beverly Cleary together |
| Vernon K-5 families who move | none | none | about 288, mostly to King and Sabin |
| Tubman’s middle school | N Flint, next to I-5 | N Flint, next to I-5 | Vernon building, NE Killingsworth |
| Average walk to Tubmanits zone in each plan | about 2.2 mi | about 2.0 mi | about 1.0 mi |
| NE middle schoolers sent past a closer middle school | about 494 | about 493 | about 87 |
| NE middle schoolers over 1.5 mithe state’s middle-school bus line | about 832 | about 858 | about 502 |
| Vernon’s middle schoolers | about 3.0 mi to N Flint | about 3.0 mi to N Flint | about 0.8 mi; stay in their building |
| Accessible building kept | Sabin (Irvington used as a swing site) | Sabin | Sabin |
| Timing | 2027 | 2027 | a creative move-in: portables, a flex year, phasing Vernon’s K-5 out from kindergarten up |
| Capital money | Beverly Cleary retrofit (planned) | none new | Vernon conversion; the state set aside $120 million for a Tubman move in 2022 |
Our model, 2031-32 kids (PSU forecast on 2020 Census blocks, model v2); red = under PPS’s 360. Scenario D: schools.csv. Sabin open: the NE 15th + Knott line, Irvington teens at Grant (schools.csv). The better plan: Tubman in the Vernon building, with the Boise-Eliot/Faubion swap: Boise-Eliot/Humboldt’s middle schoolers go to Ockley Green, which is closer for most of them, and Faubion’s main neighborhood goes to Tubman at Vernon instead (schools.csv; Move Tubman). Walk to Tubman: ms_compactness.json; NE middle-school totals: ne_ms_totals.json. $120 million: Willamette Week, Mar 3, 2022.
For and against
Sabin open
For
- Keeps the accessible building (Sabin has an elevator).
- All of Sabin stays, including its 67 students experiencing poverty.
- Sabin about 358 and Beverly Cleary about 354, on a line along collector streets.
- Kids follow their elementary school to middle school.
- About 200 more kids can walk than under A or B.
- Could start in 2027 with no construction, and fits Plan D’s use of Irvington as a swing site.
Against
- Every Irvington family moves (about 0.3 mi farther).
- Both schools sit just under 360.
- Vernon stays at about 288.
- Tubman stays on N Flint.
The better plan
For
- The middle school moves to where middle schoolers live, and off the freeway.
- The district already wants to move Tubman, and we can’t find Vernon evaluated in its site search.
- Vernon’s elementary is under 360 in A, B and D anyway.
- Vernon’s middle schoolers stay in their building.
- Sabin and King reach target.
- Irvington stays whole at Beverly Cleary.
- Swaps Boise-Eliot/Humboldt (to Ockley Green) and Faubion (to Tubman at Vernon), so most families in each go to the closer middle school.
- The early crowding can be handled with portables or a flex year.
Against
- About 288 Vernon K-5 kids move, only to Sabin or King.
- Sabin feeds two middle schools: about 75 kids from the east side of Vernon’s area go on to Beaumont.
- Trust, in a historically Black neighborhood, after the 2021-23 site search.
- The building needs capital money.
- Needs a creative move-in while the building is upgraded.
Our verdict
Move Tubman into Vernon: it’s the better plan. Sabin open is the fallback if PPS won’t move Tubman.
Moving Tubman fixes the cause: Tubman sits at the edge of a freeway and at the edge of the kids it serves. Moving it keeps Vernon’s middle schoolers in their neighborhood, turns an undersized elementary into enough kids to bring Sabin and King to target, and lets Irvington stay together. The district already wants to move Tubman, and we can’t find Vernon evaluated in its own site search.
Sabin open is good but narrow. It keeps the accessible building and keeps Sabin whole, and it could start in 2027, but it only rearranges two schools around a problem it leaves in place.
Don’t wait for a full renovation: move in creatively. Portables for the first year or two, a flex year with some grades staying on N Flint, phasing Vernon’s elementary out from kindergarten up, and upgrading the building while it’s in use. Access is the main thing to check: Vernon has a wheelchair lift but no elevator on record.
Every Sabin option side by side, with the data · Sabin open · The better plan: move Tubman