# equity_noswap_alameda_rig_hs: trade-offs (model v2, PPS horizon)

Generated by `build/solver/report_pps2031.py` from `build/solver/out_v2/{status_quo,scenario_A,equity_noswap_alameda_rig_hs}/scorecard.json` and `schools.csv`. Model v2 (`build/solver/METHOD.md` §6, §7; `out_v2/CALIBRATION.md`). This plan uses Scenario A's buildings (its 14 closures) and 9-12 lines, but not all of its immersion moves: Atkinson Spanish, Scott Spanish, MLK Jr Mandarin and Beaumont Spanish (6-8) stay home, and Lent, Rigler and Cesar Chavez are neighborhood K-5 schools that keep their Spanish programs. PPS Status Quo and PPS Scenario A are shown for reference. One exception to Scenario A's 9-12 lines: high schoolers in today's Skyline K-8 area go to Lincoln, not across the St. Johns Bridge to Roosevelt. All plans are scored on the same horizon: **required** = meet or beat Scenario A's count of schools at target every year 2027-28 → 2031-32 (PPS Family Guide p. 1: "Estimates cover 2027-28 through 2031-32" [PPS]); 2032-33 → 2035-36 **reported only** (last year of PSU's per-school Table 5.5 [PPS/PSU]); nothing past 2035-36. "At target" = zoned, non-exempt school between its floor (360 K-5 / 500 K-8 and 6-8 / 1,100 9-12) and its capacity (PPS 2025-26 school profiles), each sized by its own PSU forecast for the year [inferred: our model on PPS/PSU numbers].

**What this plan is (Current best: fewer DLI moves, sustainable schools).** The no-program-swaps plan (`equity_noswap_alameda_rig`) with one high-school fix. Elementary and middle-school lines are taken unchanged from that run's done folder (`out_v2/equity_noswap_alameda_rig/`; config `fixed_run`), so every K-5 and 6-8 figure here matches it. High-school lines are PPS Scenario A's, except that high schoolers in today's Skyline K-8 area go to Lincoln instead of across the St. Johns Bridge to Roosevelt (the same change as in Boundary changes, balanced middle schools, `option2_ms460`). No program-out / neighborhood-in swaps: 820 immersion students move (PPS Scenario A: 1,567; `programs.dli_kids_moved_total`).

**What the high-school fix changes.** 9-12 schools at target: 6, 7, 7, 8, 8 in 2027-28 to 2031-32 (PPS Scenario A's lines: 5, 7, 7, 8, 8). Roosevelt is in range every year (1,313 / 1,251 / 1,181 / 1,166 / 1,119), instead of 1,421 students in its 1,395 seats in 2027-28 under PPS A's lines. Jefferson is below 1,100 in 2027-28 to 2029-30 (563 / 804 / 979) under every plan, PPS A included, as its new attendance grows in. Costs: the high-school range (largest minus smallest, 2031-32) grows from 362 to 424 students (KPI under 350) and the average high-school walk from 1.93 to 1.98 mi. Moving Chief Joseph's whole area to Jefferson as well was tried and dropped: Roosevelt fell below 1,100 in 2030-31 to 2031-32.

Headline (2031-32 basis): elementary 38 of 38 schools at target every year 2027-28 to 2031-32 (PPS Scenario A 21 of 35 on our model); middle 12 of 13 at PPS's 500 minimum every year (George is over its 623 seats in 2027-28 to 2030-31; PPS's own Family Guide also projects George over 623 under Scenario A, 637 to 669 in 2028-29 to 2031-32, George guide p. 60, `build/pps-texts/family-guide-george.md`), 13 of 13 in 2031-32; elementary kids past a closer school 890 (PPS A 1,970); over the 1-mile bus line 3,805 (PPS A 4,703); within 1 mile 70% (PPS A 63%). It reassigns more students than PPS A (4,818 K-5 and 2,271 middle schoolers vs 2,935 and 1,972, vs PPS Status Quo), and 40% of middle zones feed one high school (PPS A 80%), because its middle lines were redrawn while its high-school lines are PPS A's. Exclave check: none at K-5 or 6-8; 9-12 lines are PPS's plus the Skyline change.

## Schools at target, year by year

`*` = required year. Counts from `durability.levels[*].at_target_zoned`.

| Level | Plan | 27-28* | 28-29* | 29-30* | 30-31* | 31-32* | 32-33 | 33-34 | 34-35 | 35-36 | All required years | All years to 2035-36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K-5 (50) | PPS Status Quo (2027-28, no closures) | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
|  | PPS Scenario A | 23 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 17 |
|  | equity_noswap_alameda_rig_hs | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 25 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 38 | 17 |
| 6-8 (14) | PPS Status Quo (2027-28, no closures) | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
|  | PPS Scenario A | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
|  | equity_noswap_alameda_rig_hs | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 |
| 9-12 (8) | PPS Status Quo (2027-28, no closures) | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
|  | PPS Scenario A | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
|  | equity_noswap_alameda_rig_hs | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 |

- PPS Scenario A: meets or beats Scenario A in every required year at every level.
- equity_noswap_alameda_rig_hs: meets or beats Scenario A in every required year at every level.

## Walking, moves and feeders (2031-32 basis)

| Level | Measure | PPS Status Quo (2027-28, no closures) | PPS Scenario A | equity_noswap_alameda_rig_hs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K-5 | Avg walk (mi) | 0.874 | 0.975 | 0.914 |
|  | % within 1 mi | 72.2 | 62.7 | 70.1 |
|  | Past a closer school | 1,861 | 1,970 | 890 |
|  | Over the bus line | 3,496 | 4,703 | 3,805 |
|  | Kids reassigned vs PPS Status Quo | 0 | 2,935 | 4,818 |
|  | Non-exempt schools in range, 2031-32 | 10 | 25 | 39 |
|  | Segregation (dissimilarity) index | 0.217 | 0.204 | 0.212 |
| 6-8 | Avg walk (mi) | 1.555 | 1.758 | 1.718 |
|  | % within 1 mi | 39.9 | 30.3 | 28.3 |
|  | Past a closer school | 1,407 | 1,259 | 1,037 |
|  | Over the bus line | 2,320 | 2,731 | 2,830 |
|  | Kids reassigned vs PPS Status Quo | 0 | 1,972 | 2,271 |
|  | Non-exempt schools in range, 2031-32 | 5 | 7 | 13 |
|  | Segregation (dissimilarity) index | 0.188 | 0.181 | 0.167 |
| 9-12 | Avg walk (mi) | 2.000 | 1.933 | 1.975 |
|  | % within 1 mi | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 |
|  | Past a closer school | 971 | 751 | 751 |
|  | Over the bus line | 4,959 | 4,936 | 4,936 |
|  | Kids reassigned vs PPS Status Quo | 0 | 388 | 295 |
|  | Non-exempt schools in range, 2031-32 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
|  | Segregation (dissimilarity) index | 0.173 | 0.180 | 0.185 |
| 9-12 | High schoolers reassigned vs PPS Scenario A | 388 | 0 | 93 |
| 9-12 | HS range, 2031-32 (largest − smallest; KPI < 350) | 375 | 362 | 424 |
| 6-8 | K-5 zones split between middle schools (ES→MS splits) | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9-12 | Middle zones feeding one high school (%) | 78% (18 of 23) | 80% (12 of 15) | 40% (6 of 15) |

Bus line = 1 mi K-5, 1.5 mi 6-8/9-12 (ORS 327.043 / PPS). Past a closer school = 0.25 mi margin, no new I-84/river crossing. Kids = neighborhood-program kids on the 2031-32 basis.

**Split feeders in this plan** (a destination counts at ≥5% and ≥5 kids):

- Middle → high: Beaumont → Grant 537, Jefferson 324, McDaniel 49; Gray → Ida B. Wells 596, Lincoln 271; Harrison Park → Franklin 244, McDaniel 312; Hosford → Cleveland 644, Franklin 88; Kellogg → Cleveland 111, Franklin 306; Lane → Cleveland 335, Franklin 431; Mt Tabor → Franklin 224, Grant 238, McDaniel 38; Ockley Green → Jefferson 428, McDaniel 62, Roosevelt 74; Tubman → Grant 492, Jefferson 417
- Elementary → middle: Beverly Cleary → Beaumont 28, Tubman 246; Hayhurst → Gray 53, Jackson 90; Llewellyn → Hosford 50, Lane 114; Rigler → Beaumont 91, Ockley Green 19
- Elementary → high (high-school-age kids): Ainsworth → Lincoln 182, Ida B. Wells 10; Alameda → Grant 335, Jefferson 72; Arleta → Franklin 182, Cleveland 5; Beverly Cleary → Grant 514, McDaniel 33, Cleveland 19; Boise-Eliot/Humboldt → Jefferson 217, Grant 67, Cleveland 9; Bridlemile → Ida B. Wells 195, Lincoln 77; Chief Joseph → Jefferson 119, Roosevelt 73; Clark → McDaniel 216, Franklin 19; Faubion → Jefferson 148, McDaniel 38; Glencoe → Franklin 213, McDaniel 28; Grout → Cleveland 189, Franklin 53; Laurelhurst → Grant 234, Franklin 12, McDaniel 10, Cleveland 8; Lent → Franklin 129, McDaniel 20; Rieke → Ida B. Wells 294, Lincoln 10; Rigler → Grant 112, McDaniel 73, Jefferson 20; Sunnyside → Cleveland 162, Franklin 35; Woodstock → Cleveland 106, Franklin 15

## 2031-32 size problems by school

| Plan | Schools outside their range in 2031-32 (kids short of floor / over capacity) |
|---|---|
| PPS Status Quo (2027-28, no closures) | Rosa Parks −192, Beaumont −187, Creston −168, Lewis −159, Mt Tabor −150, Arleta −150, Sellwood −149, Lane −143, Whitman −138, Irvington −137, Woodmere −136, Gray −134, Tubman −126, Hosford −125, Sabin −124, Peninsula −124, Buckman −121, Abernethy −119, Chief Joseph −117, Maplewood −112, George −111, Cesar Chavez −108, Lee −106, Beverly Cleary −106, Forest Park −102, Stephenson −100, Hayhurst −94, Lent −86 (program-only), Harrison Park −83, Bridger −83, Grout −80, Vestal −78, Beach −73, Woodlawn −71, Ockley Green −64, Glencoe −59, Sitton −51, Marysville −51, Boise-Eliot/Humboldt −51, Vernon −49, Llewellyn −48, Rieke −47, Capitol Hill −40, Woodstock −35, Rigler −33, Kellogg −30, Sunnyside −25, Chapman −24, MLK Jr −23, Clark −17, Markham −15, Duniway −12, James John −6 |
| PPS Scenario A | Lee −106, Forest Park −102, Clark −98, Jackson −91, Grout −80, Sunnyside −80, Tubman −77, Vernon −72, Woodlawn −68, Bridger −67, Lane −52, Laurelhurst −37, Beaumont −36, Glencoe −33, Gray −28, Chapman −24, Abernethy −5, George +50 over capacity, Sitton +14 over capacity, Whitman +45 over capacity |
| equity_noswap_alameda_rig_hs | none |

Focus options are not counted. Program-only buildings (no neighborhood area) are sized by program placement, not lines.

Solver slack left (`infeasibility.json` → `solver_slack`, kids): {"K-5": [{}], "6-8": [{}], "9-12": [{}]}