# dli_home3_rh: trade-offs (model v2, PPS horizon)

Generated by `build/solver/report_pps2031.py` from `build/solver/out_v2/{status_quo,scenario_A,dli_home3_rh}/scorecard.json` and `schools.csv`. Model v2 (`build/solver/METHOD.md` §6, §7; `out_v2/CALIBRATION.md`). All plans here use Scenario A's schools and programs and 9-12 lines and are scored on the same horizon: **required** = meet or beat Scenario A's count of schools at target every year 2027-28 → 2031-32 (PPS Family Guide p. 1: "Estimates cover 2027-28 through 2031-32" [PPS]); 2032-33 → 2035-36 **reported only** (last year of PSU's per-school Table 5.5 [PPS/PSU]); nothing past 2035-36. "At target" = zoned, non-exempt school between its floor (360 K-5 / 500 K-8 and 6-8 / 1,100 9-12) and its capacity (PPS 2025-26 school profiles), each sized by its own PSU forecast for the year [inferred: our model on PPS/PSU numbers].

**What this plan is.** This is the current best plan (fewer DLI moves, sustainable schools) with three more immersion programs kept in their own buildings: Clark Mandarin, Sitton Spanish and Ockley Green Spanish 6-8. Immersion programs move only when their building closes. Elementary lines stay within 1,200 kids of the current best's, with the same big-school relief and Rigler-area correction. Middle school lines are re-fit, and the high school lines are the current best's. Middle school lines were then re-solved once more to bring Roseway Heights up to 500.

**Result in brief.**
- **Schools at target.** Elementary: 38 every year from 2027-28 to 2031-32. Middle school: 13 of 13 counted every year, more than the current best's 12, 12, 12, 12 and 13. High school: 6, 7, 7, 8 and 8.
- **Roseway Heights:** 501 in 2031-32.
- **Immersion moves.** Immersion students who have to move fall from about 820 under the current best to about 586, by the same count used for the current best.
- **Elementary, 2031-32:** average walk 0.910 mi (current best 0.914); 4,749 kids moved from today's school (4,818).
- **Middle school, 2031-32:** average walk 1.703 mi (1.718); 2,707 kids past the bus threshold (2,830); 2,287 kids moved (2,271).
- **Exclaves:** none.

## Schools at target, year by year

`*` = required year. Counts from `durability.levels[*].at_target_zoned`.

| Level | Plan | 27-28* | 28-29* | 29-30* | 30-31* | 31-32* | 32-33 | 33-34 | 34-35 | 35-36 | All required years | All years to 2035-36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K-5 (50) | PPS Status Quo (2027-28, no closures) | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
|  | PPS Scenario A | 23 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 17 |
|  | dli_home3_rh | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 25 | 24 | 22 | 20 | 38 | 20 |
| 6-8 (14) | PPS Status Quo (2027-28, no closures) | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
|  | PPS Scenario A | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
|  | dli_home3_rh | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| 9-12 (8) | PPS Status Quo (2027-28, no closures) | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
|  | PPS Scenario A | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
|  | dli_home3_rh | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 |

- PPS Scenario A: meets or beats Scenario A in every required year at every level.
- dli_home3_rh: meets or beats Scenario A in every required year at every level.

## Walking, moves and feeders (2031-32 basis)

| Level | Measure | PPS Status Quo (2027-28, no closures) | PPS Scenario A | dli_home3_rh |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K-5 | Avg walk (mi) | 0.874 | 0.975 | 0.910 |
|  | % within 1 mi | 72.2 | 62.7 | 70.6 |
|  | Past a closer school | 1,861 | 1,970 | 793 |
|  | Over the bus line | 3,496 | 4,703 | 3,736 |
|  | Kids reassigned vs PPS Status Quo | 0 | 2,935 | 4,749 |
|  | Non-exempt schools in range, 2031-32 | 10 | 25 | 39 |
|  | Segregation (dissimilarity) index | 0.217 | 0.204 | 0.212 |
| 6-8 | Avg walk (mi) | 1.555 | 1.758 | 1.703 |
|  | % within 1 mi | 39.9 | 30.3 | 29.5 |
|  | Past a closer school | 1,407 | 1,259 | 1,012 |
|  | Over the bus line | 2,320 | 2,731 | 2,707 |
|  | Kids reassigned vs PPS Status Quo | 0 | 1,972 | 2,287 |
|  | Non-exempt schools in range, 2031-32 | 5 | 7 | 13 |
|  | Segregation (dissimilarity) index | 0.188 | 0.181 | 0.174 |
| 9-12 | Avg walk (mi) | 2.000 | 1.933 | 1.975 |
|  | % within 1 mi | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 |
|  | Past a closer school | 971 | 751 | 751 |
|  | Over the bus line | 4,959 | 4,936 | 4,936 |
|  | Kids reassigned vs PPS Status Quo | 0 | 388 | 295 |
|  | Non-exempt schools in range, 2031-32 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
|  | Segregation (dissimilarity) index | 0.173 | 0.180 | 0.185 |
| 9-12 | High schoolers reassigned vs PPS Scenario A | 388 | 0 | 93 |
| 9-12 | HS range, 2031-32 (largest − smallest; KPI < 350) | 375 | 362 | 424 |
| 6-8 | K-5 zones split between middle schools (ES→MS splits) | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9-12 | Middle zones feeding one high school (%) | 78% (18 of 23) | 80% (12 of 15) | 47% (7 of 15) |

Bus line = 1 mi K-5, 1.5 mi 6-8/9-12 (ORS 327.043 / PPS). Past a closer school = 0.25 mi margin, no new I-84/river crossing. Kids = neighborhood-program kids on the 2031-32 basis.

**Split feeders in this plan** (a destination counts at ≥5% and ≥5 kids):

- Middle → high: Beaumont → Grant 770, Jefferson 98, McDaniel 128; Gray → Ida B. Wells 597, Lincoln 271; Harrison Park → Franklin 192, McDaniel 312; Hosford → Cleveland 676, Franklin 103; Lane → Cleveland 409, Franklin 351; Mt Tabor → Franklin 224, Grant 238, McDaniel 38; Ockley Green → Jefferson 416, McDaniel 35, Roosevelt 74; Tubman → Grant 259, Jefferson 655
- Elementary → middle: Beverly Cleary → Beaumont 196, Tubman 74; Hayhurst → Gray 53, Jackson 90; Kelly → Harrison Park 45, Kellogg 19, Lane 64
- Elementary → high (high-school-age kids): Ainsworth → Lincoln 182, Ida B. Wells 10; Alameda → Grant 335, Jefferson 72; Arleta → Franklin 183, Cleveland 5; Beverly Cleary → Grant 514, McDaniel 33, Cleveland 19; Boise-Eliot/Humboldt → Jefferson 217, Grant 67, Cleveland 9; Bridlemile → Ida B. Wells 195, Lincoln 77; Chief Joseph → Jefferson 119, Roosevelt 73; Faubion → Jefferson 141, McDaniel 35; Glencoe → Franklin 213, McDaniel 28; Grout → Cleveland 188, Franklin 53; Laurelhurst → Grant 234, Franklin 12, McDaniel 10, Cleveland 8; Lent → Franklin 129, McDaniel 22; Rieke → Ida B. Wells 294, Lincoln 10; Rigler → Grant 112, McDaniel 98, Jefferson 26; Sunnyside → Cleveland 162, Franklin 35; Woodstock → Cleveland 106, Franklin 15

## 2031-32 size problems by school

| Plan | Schools outside their range in 2031-32 (kids short of floor / over capacity) |
|---|---|
| PPS Status Quo (2027-28, no closures) | Rosa Parks −192, Beaumont −187, Creston −168, Lewis −159, Mt Tabor −150, Arleta −150, Sellwood −149, Lane −143, Whitman −138, Irvington −137, Woodmere −136, Gray −134, Tubman −126, Hosford −125, Sabin −124, Peninsula −124, Buckman −121, Abernethy −119, Chief Joseph −117, Maplewood −112, George −111, Cesar Chavez −108, Lee −106, Beverly Cleary −106, Forest Park −102, Stephenson −100, Hayhurst −94, Lent −86 (program-only), Harrison Park −83, Bridger −83, Grout −80, Vestal −78, Beach −73, Woodlawn −71, Ockley Green −64, Glencoe −59, Sitton −51, Marysville −51, Boise-Eliot/Humboldt −51, Vernon −49, Llewellyn −48, Rieke −47, Capitol Hill −40, Woodstock −35, Rigler −33, Kellogg −30, Sunnyside −25, Chapman −24, MLK Jr −23, Clark −17, Markham −15, Duniway −12, James John −6 |
| PPS Scenario A | Lee −106, Forest Park −102, Clark −98, Jackson −91, Grout −80, Sunnyside −80, Tubman −77, Vernon −72, Woodlawn −68, Bridger −67, Lane −52, Laurelhurst −37, Beaumont −36, Glencoe −33, Gray −28, Chapman −24, Abernethy −5, George +50 over capacity, Sitton +14 over capacity, Whitman +45 over capacity |
| dli_home3_rh | none |

Focus options are not counted. Program-only buildings (no neighborhood area) are sized by program placement, not lines.

Solver slack left (`infeasibility.json` → `solver_slack`, kids): {"K-5": [{}], "6-8": [{"Jackson:lo": 0.15, "durability_count_short:2031-32": 1}], "9-12": [{}]}