# Findings: DLI follow-rate assumption, Scenario A/B projection method, Oct 6, 2026 BoardBook link

Retrieved 2026-10-12. Page numbers are PDF page numbers unless noted. Originals and sha256 are in `originals/` and in each file's front matter. See also `../../research/follow_rate/report.md` (separate trace of the community site's 80–84% figure; reaches the same conclusion).

## (a) DLI follow share: no stated PPS assumption

1. **Oct 1, 2026 Board Q&A Tracker**, p. 3 ("26-10-01 Q&A", https://meetings.boardbook.org/Documents/FileViewerOrPublic/915?file=14493920; parent https://meetings.boardbook.org/Meeting/Supplementals/915?meeting=769955):
   > "The information referenced can be found on pages 48-50 in Domain 2. This secttion reviews the dual language immersion programs specifically. ... "Taken together, these findings suggest that SEGC-related DLI program relocations did not appear to result in widespread district exit among DLI students." (p.49)."
2. **SEGC Equity Audit Evaluation Report** (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gcq_2z1sc6yj90PJCsUc9yqrLfAVWxSz/view; BoardBook file 3997427):
   - p. 48: "DLI-enrolled students whose programs moved largely stayed in PPS, whether or not they followed their DLI program to the new school. ... At SEGC-impacted schools, the exit rate for DLI students was about 6%, compared with 11% for non-DLI students in 2023–24."
   - p. 49: "When DLI programs moved, students who remained in PPS generally followed their program to the new school. Yet among students who left relocated DLI programs, families who left were disproportionately English-speaking."
   - p. 11: "The Mandarin middle school DLI program is enrolled about 80% of its peak pre-relocation size (97 vs. 121 students) in 2024–25 but is 43% below the SEGC plan's enrollment forecast of 168."
   - School-by-school analysis, p. 114: "Of the Spanish DLI students enrolled at Mt. Tabor in 2022–23, 36 transferred to Kellogg the following year and remained enrolled in Spanish DLI."
3. **PSU PRC table, May 30, 2025**, p. 2, note (E) (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zy_pcDNzJtzXfB011KwZDAwHCaNL_VU9/view): "(E) McDaniel HS Mandarin DLI (2025+) expected to attract a share of current and future Mandarin DLI students proportional to the share of ES Mandarin DLI students enrolled at Clark ES." (A different move; the only explicit DLI-allocation rule found.)
4. **Oct 6 deck and memo:** no follow rate.
   - Deck p. 11: "Examined K-8 to K-5/6-8 conversions and specialized programs during regional analyses to strengthen middle school cohorts and DLI pathways".
   - Deck p. 45 lists "10/13 TLE Committee: Dual Language Immersion and Middle Grades"; nothing posted on BoardBook as of 2026-10-12. **Watch this meeting.**
   - Memo p. 1: "consolidating an underenrolled immersion program may lengthen some students' trips".
5. **Live FAQ**, Oct 1, 2026 batch: "We look at specialized programs as full learning experiences from PK-12, not just single classrooms." Also: "more than 93% of families stayed with PPS" (district retention, not program follow).

**Implied ratio [our calculation, not PPS's].** Gain = Family Guide "Options A and B" minus "No changes", 2027-28 to 2031-32. Denominator = PSU PRC July 2026 Table 5.5 forecast of the moving strand.

| Receiving school, moving program | Gain | PRC forecast of moving strand | Implied share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lent, Atkinson Spanish | 145, 149, 153, 147, 147 | 182, 187, 190, 183, 183 | 80%, 80%, 81%, 80%, 80% |
| Rigler, Scott Spanish | 181, 186, 184, 184, 184 | 223, 227, 223, 223, 223 | 81%, 82%, 83%, 83%, 83% |
| Woodstock, Clark Mandarin | 84, 81, 82, 83, 81 | 100, 94, 93, 92, 87 | 84%, 86%, 88%, 90%, 93% |
| Vestal (Scenario A), Rose City Park Vietnamese | 213, 215, 215, 220, 221 | 208, 209, 207, 211, 210 | 102–105% |
| Boise-Eliot/Humboldt, MLK Mandarin | 207, 207, 209, 211, 204 | 201, 201, 203, 204, 196 | 103–104% |

Caveats: not a stated PPS assumption; may include second-order effects; one flat rate does not fit all five moves. César Chávez, George and Roseway Heights not computed (they also have boundary or grade changes).

**Do not confuse with:** the regional-summary 80–84% figures (e.g. Jefferson/Roosevelt "Students attending a school above the threshold 82%", "Students Experiencing Poverty in Sustainable Schools 84%"). Those are sustainability coverage measures.

## (b) Projection methodology

**Baseline is the PSU PRC forecast of July 24, 2026.**
- Oct 1 Q&A p. 28: "Here is the PPS Enrollment Forecast from 2026-27 to 2035-36 from Portland State's Population Research Center. This was updated on July 24, 2026 and provides the source enrollment data we are using to analyze enrollment and model."
- Same file at https://www.pps.net/fs/resource-manager/view/8f9d62cd-5056-4cdc-8435-4bcba8ba86b1 (byte-identical to Drive 1YHR9m-nb55T0e8ZWdxDU3fol8tVWtXnS).
- Family Guide "No changes" figures (2027-28; 2031-32) equal PRC Table 5.5 (p. 37): Abernethy 242; 241, Buckman 244; 239, Woodstock 342; 325, Sellwood MS 523; 350, Lent 256; 274.

**PRC method, verbatim:**
- p. 23: "The enrollment forecasts comprise several components, beginning with a demographic forecast of the district's total resident population and the expected share of that population that enrolls in a PPS school at the kindergarten entry point. The growth or attrition of currently enrolled cohorts is subsequently determined by modeling and projecting the ratio of students who advance to the next grade in school. The overall methodology utilizes a bottom-up, school-level forecast controlled to a top-down district total."
- p. 23: "In cases where schools have experienced attendance zone changes or program moves, data splits are created such that the zones or programs can be characterized as they were in the past, or as they will be in the future. Program moves, attendance boundary changes, facility openings and closures, and other systemic adjustments - including implementation of Southeast Enrollment and Program Balancing - are incorporated into the enrollment forecast based on data provided by PPS on their timing, geographic scope, and affected populations."
- p. 24: "The kindergarten capture rate is projected based on the assumption of gradual convergence toward the pre-COVID 10-year average, while the district-wide GPRs use the prior 3-year averages, and the individual schools generally rely on longer-run averages with the COVID years removed".
- p. 24: "Discrepancies between the individual school and district-wide forecasts by grade are resolved by adjusting individual school metrics."
- Affordable-housing student generation rates: Table 4.1, p. 25.
- Q&A p. 28: "the Population Research Center at PSU takes into account new housing developments. They model the effects of income restricted housing."

**Scenario layer (PPS): fragments only.**
- Memo (file 14509719) p. 1: "Central office teams in Academics, Activities and Athletics, Data and Modeling, Operations, and Communications and Engagement have worked together to develop two scenarios ... Both scenarios will be compared with projections of enrollment and school sustainability if no action is taken."
- Memo pp. 2–3: "Maplewood would consolidate into Hayhurst and Rieke, with a proposed distribution of 70 percent to Hayhurst and 30 percent to Rieke"; Stephenson "using the same proportions"; "Buckman would consolidate into Abernethy and Sunnyside, with a proposed distribution of 50 percent to each."
- Deck (file 14511742) p. 11: "Evaluated projected enrollment patterns and capacity by grade band through 2031-32." Also: "Capped receiving schools at no more than two per closure."
- Regional summaries: "All figures are projections for the 2031–32 school year."
- Family Guide p. 2: "*You may notice slight differences in student numbers and/or demographics in schools that don't experience change because a focus option school has changed and we assume that students return to their neighborhood school."
- Family Guide p. 1: "Estimates cover 2027-28 through 2031-32. They are not current student counts." Also: "The school details, numbers, and maps come from PPS school profiles."
- Q&A p. 32: "These locked spring and summer baseline projections form the foundation of our financial and operational modeling".

**Not found:** any appendix or memo explaining how students from closed schools, moved programs or redrawn boundaries were reassigned in the Scenario A/B numbers.

**Data-quality flag:** the Drive table linked at Q&A p. 33 is labelled May 30, 2025 but contains 2025-26 actuals matching the July 2026 forecast.

## (c) Oct 6, 2026 BoardBook link

- Agenda: https://meetings.boardbook.org/Public/Agenda/915?meeting=769955 ("October 6, 2026 at 6:00 PM - Regular Meeting", item "8. 7:30 pm - Update: Rightsizing", 19 attachments).
- Supplementals: https://meetings.boardbook.org/Meeting/Supplementals/915?meeting=769955
- Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOUH2Jq7Owo
- Key attachments:
  - PowerPoint: https://meetings.boardbook.org/Documents/FileViewerOrPublic/915?file=14511742
  - Memo: file 14509719
  - District-wide scenarios: file 14505788
  - Regional summaries: files 14505790–93
  - Boundary maps: files 14505794–805
- Meeting 770670 is the 5:00 PM ethics training, not this meeting.

## Where we looked

- **BoardBook:** agendas for every meeting from Sept 1 to Oct 6, 2026 (ids 763670, 763368, 761703, 765500, 766405, 766660, 766653, 766050, 767447, 767819, 767981, 768451, 769461, 769094, 770670, 769955); supplementals for 761703, 766050 and 769955.
- **pps.net:** live presentations page and FAQ.
- **Files linked from the Q&A:** the PRC report, school forecast table, capture-rate summary, waitlists, and the "Why They Stay and Leave" report (only DLI mention is a parent quote).
- **Existing archive:** SEGC reports and the 82 Family Guides.
- **Web search:** no PPS source for the 80–84% claim (the community source is pps-dli-explorer; see `../../research/follow_rate/report.md`).
- **Not posted yet:** the Oct 13 TLE and Oct 20 meetings. No minutes posted after Aug 4; BoardBook says official minutes are the videos.